You’re so vain — you’re probably betting on a recession

In my 50-plus years of managing money — which started back in the days when Carly Simon was cranking out hits — recessions have mostly been surprises. Now, almost everybody expects one. The Philadelphia Fed’s Recession Probability gauge has hit a record high. A survey from The Conference Board shows 98% of American CEOs expect an economic downturn within 12 to 18 months, with 99% forecasting the same for Europe. KPMG found that 63% of... + full article